Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
