A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
